|
By Ted Belman,
Israpundit
November 26, 2007
The key to solving American troubles in the ME is Syria,
not Israel. You may recall that Saudi Arabia demanded that
Syria be invited as the price for gaining its attendance and
Syria was invited. There is no solution to the
Israeli/Palestinian conflict, or should I say the
Israel/Arab conflict, until the Arab countries are prepared
to recognize Israel as a Jewish state and sign an end of
conflict agreement. The former has been rejected and the
latter is not even discussed.
America must stop and reverse the growing influence of
Iran. The way to do this is to wean Syria away from Iran
just as it weaned Egypt away from the USSR after the Yom
Kippur War. Syria’s ruling clique, the
Alawites, above all, seek to perpetuate
its regime. To this end, it manufactured an external enemy,
Israel. Peace with Israel would threaten its regime. Better
to keep them as an “enemy”. Who cares about the Golan
anyway. But Lebanon is another story. The Alawites would
dearly love to have its way with Lebanon and the US would
have no trouble with this if they entrenched Syria was
entrenched in the US camp.
Syria also needed a patron to support it financially and
otherwise and turned to Iran. But Iran is no match for the
US in this regard and Syria knows it.
Finally there is the natural affinity of the Syrians to
the Arab camp and sooner or later Syria will return to that
camp.
Barry Rubin, the author of The Truth about Syria,
was
interviewed by Michael Totten and said,
Syria is
not a radical regime because it has been mistreated by the
West or Israel but because the regime needs
radicalism to survive. It is a minority
dictatorship of a small non-Muslim minority and it offers
neither freedoms nor material benefit. It needs demagoguery,
the scapegoats of America and Israel, massive loot taken
from Lebanon, an Iraq which is either destabilized or a
satellite, and so on.
Take the simple issue of
the Golan Heights. It is commonplace to say that Syria wants
back the Golan Heights. But one need merely ask the simple
question: what happens if Syria gets it back? If Syria’s
regime made peace with Israel it has no excuse for having a
big military, a dictatorship, and a terrible economy. The
day after the deal the Syrian people will start demanding
change. The regime knows that.
So the US must find a way to enable the Syrian Alawite
regime to survive without radicalism.
As Rubin points out, this is no small matter,
While the
Syrian regime poses as being desirous of peace and
engagement with the West, in fact its institutions,
ideology, propaganda, and activities go in the exact
opposite direction. To survive, the
minority-dominated, dictatorial, and economically
incompetent government needs radicalism, control over
Lebanon, regional instability, anti-Americanism, and using
Israel as a scapegoat.
So here’s the deal. Syria abandons Iran and embrace the
US. In other words, become a US ally and beneficiary. In
exchange the US could drop all investigations against its
leaders for the assassinations in Lebanon and allow Syria to
be the controlling power in Lebanon just as it did to end
the civil war there in 1989 pursuant to the Taif Agreement.
Thus Lebanon would become stable and remain in the US camp.
To further strengthen this camp, Syria would have to abandon
all rejectionist forces including Hezbollah, Hamas and the
others.
As part of this deal, Lebanon and Syria would sign a
peace agreement with Israel and Israel would give back the
Golan and Sheba Farms. Israel would get a 100 year lease of
the Golan and life would go on as it is now. Also Syria and
Lebanon would have to agree to give citizenship to the
Palestinian refugees in their countries thereby ending their
refugee status.
Finally, the US would agree to protect the Alawite Regime
just as it protects Mubarak and the House of Saud. Remember
that Mubarak has an internal enemy, the Brotherhood and so
does Syria. Recall that in 1982 Syria suppressed a
Brotherhood uprising by killing 20,000 people at Hama.
So Syria is the key to containing Iran and ending the
Israel/Arab conflict. If Syria can be bought off in this
way, all else is possible.
See also
Can Syrians, Saudis make summit work?
by Ron Campeas
Ted Belman
|